Uncertainty exposes leadership habits.
When everything is running smoothly, leadership can feel predictable. Outcomes are clearer. Stakeholders are calmer. Teams know the plan. Decisions follow a familiar cadence.
But when uncertainty enters — whether through market shifts, organisational change, restructures, new leadership, team conflict or unexpected challenges — everything tightens.
Suddenly:
- decisions feel heavier
- communication becomes harder
- confidence dips
- emotional tension rises
- teams look to you for answers you don’t yet have
- time compresses
- pressure intensifies
In these moments, the question isn’t:
“How do I remove uncertainty?”
You often can’t.
The real question is:
“How do I lead well within it?”
After 20+ years leading global sales organisations — and many more coaching senior executives — I’ve learned that uncertainty isn’t the enemy. It’s an amplifier.
It amplifies your habits.
It amplifies your mindset.
It amplifies your clarity.
It amplifies your gaps.
It amplifies your strengths.
It amplifies the state of your team.
In this article, I want to share a grounded, practical approach to leading effectively through uncertainty — drawn from corporate leadership, coaching hundreds of leaders, and the many long, cold hours I’ve spent navigating extreme environments in endurance racing.
Because in uncertain conditions — whether in business or on a frozen trail at –40°C — the same principle applies:
You don’t need certainty to move forward.
You need clarity, calm and perspective.
Why Uncertainty Feels So Difficult for Leaders
Uncertainty is uncomfortable because it removes the illusion of control.
Leaders are used to:
- making decisions based on data
- planning ahead
- forecasting outcomes
- managing expectations
- communicating direction
Uncertainty disrupts all of that.
Instead of clarity, you get ambiguity.
Instead of predictability, you get volatility.
Instead of control, you get complexity.
And when uncertainty grows, leaders often fall into one of three traps:
Trap 1: Overreacting
Making fast decisions to create the feeling of progress.
Trap 2: Freezing
Avoiding decisions because none feel safe.
Trap 3: Over-functioning
Taking on too much, thinking you must fix everything yourself.
These reactions are human — but they make uncertainty worse.
Effective leadership requires a different approach.
Lessons From the Arctic About Leading Through Uncertainty
During the Yukon Arctic Ultra, conditions changed constantly:
- temperatures rose and fell by 30 degrees
- snow quality shifted hour by hour
- trails vanished in storms
- visibility disappeared
- distances felt inconsistent
- navigation became unpredictable
You never know what the next hour will bring.
But uncertainty doesn’t stop movement — if you manage your mindset.
The leaders who thrive in uncertainty do something similar to what I learned out there:
They don’t chase certainty. They create clarity.
They focus on:
- the next step
- the next decision
- the next conversation
- the next checkpoint
That’s how you move forward when the big picture feels unclear.
It’s not about controlling the environment.
It’s about controlling your response.
The 5 Leadership Skills That Matter Most in Uncertainty
1. Clarity of Direction (Even When You Don’t Have All the Answers)
Clarity isn’t certainty.
Clarity is:
- what we know
- what we don’t know
- what we’re choosing
- what matters most
- what we’re doing next
Leaders often worry about looking uncertain.
But people don’t expect you to know everything.
They expect you to:
- communicate honestly
- reduce noise
- provide perspective
- create focus
A simple, honest statement can transform a room:
“Here’s what we know, here’s what we don’t know yet, and here’s what we’re doing next.”
That is clarity. And clarity is leadership.
2. Emotional Regulation (Your Energy Sets the Tone)
Uncertainty magnifies emotion.
Teams don’t listen to what you say first — they feel how you feel.
If you’re:
- anxious
- reactive
- overwhelmed
- impatient
…your team will mirror it.
But if you’re:
- calm
- steady
- measured
- grounded
…your team will stabilise.
Regulating your own state is not self-indulgent — it is leadership.
It’s the difference between:
leading the room
and the room leading you.
3. Communication That Reduces Noise
In uncertain periods, communication becomes one of the biggest performance tools.
Teams don’t just need information — they need interpretation.
Effective communication during uncertainty includes:
- clear, short messages
- avoiding jargon
- framing decisions simply
- acknowledging emotions
- repeating core messages
- clarifying expectations
- giving people time to process
- removing unnecessary detail
People don’t need more updates; they need more clarity within the updates.
4. Perspective Management (Zoom Out → Zoom In → Zoom Out)
Uncertainty creates tunnel vision.
Leaders get caught in:
- immediate problems
- urgent tasks
- emotional noise
- short-term thinking
Perspective breaks that pattern.
A simple tool I use with clients is this:
Zoom Out → Zoom In → Zoom Out
Zoom Out
What’s the broader context?
What’s the long-term impact?
What’s actually important?
Zoom In
What needs attention now?
What’s the first step?
What’s the next decision?
Zoom Out
Does the step still make sense?
Does it align with the bigger picture?
Is there anything I need to adjust?
Perspective calms the nervous system — and clarifies the path.
5. Team Stability and Human Connection
Uncertainty makes people feel threatened — not always consciously, but emotionally.
Teams look for:
- reassurance
- direction
- understanding
- psychological safety
- human connection
Strong leaders don’t hide complexity — they humanise it.
They:
- bring people together
- communicate frequently
- acknowledge worry
- encourage questions
- share their own reflections
- create small moments of stability
- make people feel seen
Uncertainty becomes easier when people feel supported.
The Behaviours That Undermine Leadership in Uncertainty
The following behaviours create more instability:
1. Withholding information to avoid panic
Teams fill silence with fear.
Transparency reduces emotional noise.
2. Rushing decisions for the sake of momentum
Fast isn’t always forward.
3. Avoiding difficult conversations
Silence creates mistrust.
4. Becoming overly optimistic
False positivity isn’t leadership — it’s avoidance.
5. Micro-managing
Uncertainty triggers control impulses.
This suffocates teams.
6. Disappearing into busyness
Visibility matters more than ever during uncertainty.
Leaders must be intentional about these patterns.
How to Lead Your Team Through Uncertainty (Practical Steps)
Below are grounded steps you can use immediately.
Step 1 — Start With What You Know (And Don’t Know)
This builds trust.
Say it clearly:
- “Here’s what we know.”
- “Here’s what we don’t know yet.”
- “Here’s what we’re doing next.”
This removes fear and guesswork.
Step 2 — Slow Down Your Thinking
Before responding to any challenge, ask:
“What problem am I actually trying to solve?”
Uncertainty creates noise.
Leaders cut through noise by slowing the moment down.
Step 3 — Define One Clear Next Step
People don’t need the whole plan.
They need the next step.
Focus reduces fear.
Step 4 — Anchor Your Team With Predictable Routines
Routine creates psychological safety.
Examples:
- consistent team meetings
- regular check-ins
- clarity rituals
- weekly updates
- space for questions
Predictability stabilises people.
Step 5 — Support the Emotional Experience of Your Team
You don’t need to fix emotion — acknowledge it.
Say:
- “It’s normal to feel unsettled.”
- “This is a tough period — let’s talk about it.”
Emotion acknowledged → emotion reduced.
Step 6 — Build Your Own Support Structure
Leaders carrying uncertainty alone break down faster.
A coach, mentor, or trusted peer gives you:
- perspective
- emotional space
- clarity
- a sounding board
- a pause
Uncertainty demands shared thinking, not solo thinking.
Final Reflection — You Don’t Need Certainty to Lead Well
Uncertainty isn’t a leadership failure.
It’s a leadership environment.
You can’t remove uncertainty for your team — but you can remove:
- confusion
- noise
- fear
- ambiguity
- reactivity
You can replace them with:
- clarity
- consistency
- calm
- direction
- empathy
- perspective
Strong leadership isn’t built when things are easy. It’s built in the moments when things feel unclear.
When you lead with clarity, calm and humanity, people don’t need certainty — they need you.
If leading through uncertainty is something you want to strengthen, I’d be happy to support you.
